NCR: From ECQ to GCQ

Metro Manila mayors are set to meet tomorrow and decide whether to move to GCQ or extend the ECQ . I have mixed feelings on this: on one hand, I am seeing the impact on business and am worried about the downward spiral (methinks we have not seen the worst yet), as I read about entire industries (BPO for example) being impacted. On the other hand, I think of the safety of each life and that this should override any economic consideration/s. Net, I really don’t have a firm idea on where we should be by May 16.

What’s your take on this? When do you think will the NCR be ready to move to GCQ? What specific indicators would you render relevant and necessary to finally say we’re good to relax? Please share away :slight_smile:

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Too risky for relaxing ECQ measures and then we have this:

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Something’s going to give…

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Vietnam is commendable.
270+ cases, no deaths, no new cases in HCM in the past month. Everything is back to normal since last week.

My friend who is based in HCM said that work resumed last week. Border still closed and all incoming passengers like diplomats, etc are automatically tested and confined in government facilities.

I hope our government can start mass testing now before lifting the ECQ. No other way but to do mass testing especially since there are asymptomatic cases. :sigh:

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BPOs are fine. A number of companies have announced at the onset that they are willing to give advanced or even increased salary/billet employees in nearby living spaces (as mandated in the original ECQ order)/provide shuttle services or WFH setup. If anything, it’s the employees of the BPOs who are too greedy to cut into their profits who have to go to work despite no public transport or be subject to no work no pay who are suffering.

Agreed, let’s take this to June 15 and see how this goes.

We see that the economy is going down. But the government has not done enough to convincingly say that it is already fine to lift ECQ measures. Wala na ba tayong backlog sa testing? Okay na ba ang turn over ng results? Looking at the active cases, ang dami pa. Dagdag pa riyan, aside form having the quarantine facilities, paglalagay ng visual marks sa MRT at LRT, what other measures have been done to prevent Covid 19 cases from spreading? Pakiramdam ko kasi, sinasabi sa atin na, “o, bahala na kayo ha. Bagsak na ekonomiya natin, balik na tayo sa dati.”

Minsan sumagi sa isip ko, parang gustong gawin ng gobyerno yung herding immunity sa atin pero di lang sinasabi. Okay, paranoid thinking na yun. :lol:

Kailangan pag-isipan ang measures and implementation kung sakaling GCQ na tayo.

@slaine kung sana graph ng PSEi yan instead no (W) :huhuhu:

buntung hininga ng malalim :sigh:

may mga emerging sectors na you have to watch out for like biotech, infotech and e-commerce platforms, health is also booming as well as food manufacturing

for diversification it might even make more sense to invest in farms, piggeries and chicken raising again like what non-urban middle classes do…

We can’t afford to extend the ECQ to June 15th. After June 1st, it will be a sink or swim.

Let’s just hope we can treat all of those who will turn positive of the disease and keep deaths to a minimum.

Treating all Covid+ cases is what all the hospitals are doing but you must stop the community spread of the virus otherwise the cycle wont stop.

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You can’t stop the spread totally. The goal is to keep it to a level where it will not overwhelm our healthcare system.

Why not? Why is June 1st critical as opposed to May or June 15th or any other date?

You can try to contain it and not give up altogether because you think it cannot be stopped.

Because by then, the damage to the economy would have been VERY devastating it will result in more joblessness which in turn will result in even less consumer spending, and on and on…

2 weeks is a lot considering we’ve been on lockdown for 9 weeks by May 15th. June 15th is a full quarter with very little economic activity from a country which revolves around consumer spending.

I didn’t say give up. It’s just not practical to stop the spread completely.

We’ve had a flu vaccine for how many years now? But even to this day, the common flu infects so much more and results in so much more deaths than covid-19.

That’s why this is very hard: ubos na yung leave ng mga tao, wala na suweldo, and some industries cannot afford to augment their employees’ salaries. And it’s not because they do not want to, but simply because they cannot. Cash reserves are being depleted, credit is tight (let’s not even talk about cost). There has to be some significant level of spending to spur economic activity.

I struggle to understand what should have been achieved by government in the last two months, and whether they have been successful. If they were not, how can the extra month deliver what has not been achieved?

And I understand really the worry of going through a second wave if we lift the ECQ prematurely. Wag nyo ko awayin ha :embarasslaff: It’s just that it’s hard to balance all these :shrug:


Government has done relatively well.

Government knew we didn’t have the capacity to test and treat patients early on, so the travel ban and ECQ a few weeks after, were implemented sooner than the rest of the world. They followed the correct protocol in contact tracing and testing according to the resources we have, and built up capacity.

That said, they missed the 8k tests per day last May 1, but caught up to it by bringing our capacity to 12k today, May 8. The goal at the end of May is 30k, and I hope we are able to hit that.

At that point, most if not all, of Mega Manila should be downgraded to GCQ.

I actually am hoping we move to GCQ. We need consumer spending and its multiplier effect. Sa areas na GCQ na and malls are open, people are spending even for non-essentials (at least for my industry). Too early to tell whether the spending levels will drastically go down (it is expected to, but no indicator of how low).

I’m hoping Mega Manila downgrades to GCQ. I think the epicenter already moved to Cebu. They should extend ECQ there until May 30th.

Our economy runs on consumption. Once we have people coming back to work and shops open up, we will be able to bounce back relatively quickly.

Government is also absolutely correct in having BBB, construction, and tourism as the key industries to spearhead our rebound.

If this is your logic, then why not May 15? Hell, why not May 10, after all, the mayors’ meeting would be tomorrow?

I am hoping too. SMEs need to open, kailangan ng pang sweldo sa employees :huhuhu: Pero nakakatakot pa ring lumabas at pumuntang office. Paano na? :dunno:

That was not my logic.

You should not pick an arbitrary number like May 10th or 11th or whatever. That has no logic or basis at all.

You want to look at every 15 days because the scientific convention today is that the virus has a 14-day incubation period. Hence, the extension should either be June 1 or June 15. The latter will mean 3 months of VERY little economic activity. That will be VERY devastating to our economy and it will be very hard to rebound when that happens.

MSMEs employ the majority of our workforce. Most of these MSMEs can probably sustain the lack of cash flow for 3 months, but not more. Most of the MSMEs I’ve dealt with only have 60-day buffers on their accounts receivables.

Large companies, on the other hand, can survive non-payment from their customers even for 6 months or more. MSMEs, if you don’t pay them on their due date, they will call you every single day. When MSMEs go under, Large companies will be impacted soon enough.