When will COVID19 end? (Philippines)

Based from the study of Singapore University of Technology and Design (which shows similar trends from initial models released by our local scientists), we expect infection rate to die down by 99% by May 19, 2020.


I’d like to know your thoughts about it. Do you think that the model captured a real glance of the situation given that they are using DOH’s data?

From what I’m seeing so far, less na din yung issues na napapagusapan (dire need for body bags, overcapacity of hospitals, etc). True ba sa location niyo? In our city, pataas pa din though. Im from Laguna btw.

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/?fbclid=IwAR3MK_Kn9cFSQEnMiv_3YMlukuuo4acEnZ6Q0TmpL7CpvBTnd_NnDKUylBQ in


Halloo, they did say na kakaiba yung data from the Philippines. Difficult to trust the data, enough testing being done ba?

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Difficult to trust the Philippine data. Lots of backlogs and testing is too low.


The simple answer is NO it will not end

I believe asking when COVID19 will end would be like asking when will cold/flu/coronaviruses end, it’s a complex problem needing new lenses and frameworks to even get a better handle on the situation

The number of infections will fluctuate depending on how people all over the world adapt and change their lifestyles but the virus itself is now in the general population so it’s really futile to do any kind of forecasts at this point…

It will only take one asymptomatic super-spreader to trigger a pandemic again anywhere in the world and unless countries start aligning their motivations to contain the spread on a global scale instead of just within their imagined political borders, it’s really better to think in terms of multiple scenarios instead of relying on linear forecasts as a basis for decision making and forward planning…

Now if you were asking when the ECQ will end or when it will be lifted in NCR, most probable answer would be Jun. 15 which is an altogether different question in itself and even that is subject to change depending on a lot of factors…also even if the ECQ gets lifted, the next likely scenario is that there’s a drastic increase in cases again after 3-4 weeks and you have another period of lockdown-lifting (second wave) again and so on and so forth (third, fourth, etc) until such time that a vaccine for all strains of COVID19 is developed and the lockdown becomes a last option again instead of the first response to an outbreak…


Hi. I do share the same sentiments with all of you. I lost trust with the DOH in handling the spread of COVID since the first case in Greenhills. I still believe that the true number of cases is far from what is reported.

Note that during the time of posting, the number of cases was at 7600 levels and at the moment, it’s at 10000++ levels. Definitely a different scenario. So yeah, the model and their predictions should not hold any bearing anymore. If you even click the link, they already removed their model graph for the Philippines given the sudden changes in the situation here in our country.

If there’s something consistent with the DOH, that is the fact that they still fail to conduct true MASS testing which should have provided better insights on what actions should be done to control the situation. And now, our underprivileged fellow Filipinos are still facing the dilemma of staying at home and earn nothing or go out and risk themselves on contracting the virus. :mask: :mask: :mask:

Just an update, on our city, number of patients that were able to recover is around 81% of total recorded cases. I really wish that this would end soon.


It’s almost impossible to control, there’s community transmission already. Best we can hope for is a vaccine within the year.


Here you go:


It will only go away once everyone who do not have natural immunity (10%?) have either gotten sick or died.


Attending an ongoing international webinar on disaster management. Current topic is on the COVID response:

The “Successful 7” (Countries that did well early) -
– New Zealand
– Senegal
– Iceland
– Germany
– Taiwan
– South Korea
– Singapore

Wow Senegal!

Common Strategies of the “Successful 7”

• Energetic, early, & rapid policy response
• Control of interna:onal travel entry
• Early, wide, & rapid – result/testing
• Effective contact tracing & case monitoring
• Leader Messaging
• Adapt & Innovate (tech, logistics, collaboration)
• Enlist the public in best practices
– (Masks, surfaces cleaning, social distancing,
personal hygiene measures)


I don’t think it will end–we will just find ways of dealing with it, either through medication and/or vaccines.

^ Also, these countries focused on response against the pandemic–tigil muna ang lahat, ayusin muna natin ang bansa. We all know what happened while most of the country was on ECQ (cough abscbnshutdown, antiterrorismbill, etc. cough).



When we vaccinate everyone or at least more than majority of people