Doubts in COVID-19 Case Reporting

You might have already read about Arnold Clavio’s Instagram post claiming that a certain hospital has ‘bodies piling up’ and that it was appealing for additional body bags but has been barred from reporting the deaths.

DOH and the hospital in question have already denied the accusations:

My question to you is, are you finding it hard to trust the admin right now on COVID-19 matters?

We’ve seen Duque and Duterte make ridiculous claims in public statements that you could easily verify are not true. They even contradict their own statements.

But I was quite surprised to see this online panel survey from Publicus Asia on the approval rating for the national government’s COVID-19 response:
You can see the details in the Publicus Asia Facebook Page

Who do you trust in these tumultuous times? Can we trust the government’s assessment when they conclude the lockdown?

I know cynicism does no good but we should at least know which people and institutions we can trust right? And the government isn’t doing a very good job at gaining that trust right now.


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Not a Stat major so I cannot comment on their statement regarding their sampling method.

The DDS hive mind is strong though. Best not to believe what we experience in out respective social media bubbles.


As long as walang comprehensive/mass testing, there is a high possibility of underreporting


The DDS Hivemind is indeed so hard to crack. :headshake:

The government script seems to be that they’re doing everything they can to provide the most massive testing they can provide. I don’t want to doubt that but of course, here in the Philippines, people only get what they need when they demand it. I just hope there was some third party information source that can’t be coerced by the government. Unfortunately the media isn’t strong enough.

Anyway, I’m impressed with how PGH reports their cases. Very transparent. Sana all:


People here believe Arnold Clavio when he never showed any piece of evidence? He also consequently denied he’s got a socmed account? Even EAMC denied his allegations.

Huh isn’t the admission of EAMC having an overwhelmed mortuary enough of a confirmation that his posts had truth? The screenshots of the appeals for additional cadaver bags that he posted could be searched on Facebook too.

And when did he deny the social media account? I can’t find articles on that. This Instagram account is verified:

He hasn’t taken down the posts.

If anything, he’s been vindicated through the actions from DOH/IATF afterwards. The reiteration that LGUs have to follow the time limit for cremation and taking care of unclaimed bodies. Had he not posted that, when would we have known?

EAMC also stated that some of the bodies were PUIs that have not yet received their test results–busting the claim that we’re doing enough tests. PGH reports deaths of probable COVID victims.


Nope. The whole point of his post is that the DOH ordered hospitals to under-report their Covid-19 cases and especially deaths.

EAMC already denied they received such an order.

Very malicious for this Duterte-hating news anchor.

Point one, inaamin mo na ngayon na social media account niya 'yun. Kanina sabi mo he said he didn’t have social media. Shows the kind of sources you read.

Point two, the discourse of this thread is anchored on the fact that it’s hard to trust the admin regarding accurate reporting because they’ve gone back in their own words just like you did.

Is an EAMC denial enough? Has Mayor Joy Belmonte denied the allegations? Bodies were piling up and they were PUIs. That fact has not been made public until Clavio posted it on social media. If the tests come back and those unclaimed dead bodies turn out to he COVID-positive, that’s full vindication. Just because it hasn’t been confirmed now, doesn’t mean he lied. He was demanding that the truth be uncovered.

You, on the other hand, are dismissing the claims with just a denial. That’s no different from the claims made. On Clavio’s side is the existence of an overburdened mortuary. Who’s more believable at this point?


It was Arnold Clavio himself who denied his account. Google it.

Why would EAMC state what they just stated, i.e. that DOH never told them to under-report their cases and deaths? Why would I listen to Joy - a politician - more than EAMC themselves?

What would the Duterte admin gain from under-reporting? They have always been consistent in saying they have more cases than what they can report, simply because they can only do ~3,000 tests per day (34,000 to date). They know there are more cases but they don’t have the capacity to confirm such cases.

The posts reek of a certain excommunicated poster from way back. Hmmm…

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Nah, @fretburner was never banned from the old site, he’s legit. He just posts like that even back then

Also AFAIK benign0 wasn’t kicked out of the old forum

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It would be healthy for everyone if you can support your arguments with references. In that way, this topic will be productive even if we are on the different ends of the spectrum. :kissing_heart:

I agree. Arnold Clavio’s was a showbiz blind item. Zero reference.

My reference is EAMC’s and DOH’s official statements. Arnold Clavio was not able to refute both statements with another set of references because his “original” reference did not exist right from the start.


“The measured transmission rates assume accuracy and honesty of data, and any deviations in the data structure may cause calculations and forecasts in the model to change dramatically.”

^ hindi pa considered ang deaths under investigation, or the speed & accuracy of mass testing, among others

one can’t help but doubt the stats talaga because assumptions are based on incomplete set of evidence. and these are critical data pa ha, that can mess up the whole forecast if not plugged in



Evidence will never be complete nor be 100% accurate. All managers will have to make a decision with the best available information at a very specific time frame.

I hope the ECQ decision will be on the conservative side.